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[18 mar 2019 | Kommentarer inaktiverade för Level of debt worries bond investors; majority expects higher risk premiums | ]
Level of debt worries bond investors; majority expects higher risk premiums

Bond investors see high debt levels as the greatest concern for the global economy. More than three-quarters of respondents consider high government debt as a possible trigger of a new recession or market crisis.
This is one of the conclusions of the second Global Fixed Income Study by asset manager Invesco, based on interviews with 145 bond specialists and CIOs in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), North America and Asia. Together the respondents account for assets under management of $ 14.1 trillion.
A possible new crisis in emerging markets, the Chinese …

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[11 mar 2019 | Kommentarer inaktiverade för Varför oroa sig för den mexikanska börsen? | ]
Varför oroa sig för den mexikanska börsen?

IShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW) har stigit med 5,12 procent, year-to-date. Det är emellertid långt från den utveckling som vi sett hos MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Nya bekymmer om Mexikos tappade grepp om sin kreditvärdighet i investment grade kan väga på EWW och andra mexikanska tillgångar. Det kommer även påverka andra börshandlade fonder med fokus på Mexiko.
EWW syftar till att spåra investeringsresultatet för MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index, vilket är ett fritt fluktuerat marknadsvärderingsvägd index med en capping-metod som tillämpas på emittentens vikter så att ingen enskild emittent …

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[5 feb 2019 | Kommentarer inaktiverade för El Niño: the impact on agricultural commodities | ]
El Niño: the impact on agricultural commodities

El Niño refers to a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather patterns. The name, which loosely translates to ‘Christ child’, traces its origin back to Peruvian fisherman in the 1600s, who observed that fish yields would often decline around Christmas time as sea water temperatures rose. The effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia.
With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) …

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[29 jan 2019 | Kommentarer inaktiverade för Mexico Trade Surplus Triggers Unease | ]
Mexico Trade Surplus Triggers Unease

Mexico’s large trade surplus may be a sign of weakening domestic demand. The current account improvements in Brazil need extra support from fiscal adjustment and structural reform.
There was a sense of unease in Mexico this morning despite the fact that the country posted a very large trade surplus in December (USD1.836B vs. expected deficit of USD0.9B). The reason is that the unexpected improvement was due to weaker imports – both petroleum and non-oil (see chart below). The latter may be interpreted as a sign of weakening domestic demand, which means …

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[23 jan 2019 | Kommentarer inaktiverade för Gold outlook 2019: recovery expected to continue | ]
Gold outlook 2019: recovery expected to continue

Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning in gold futures drove prices down in the second half of the year, sentiment toward gold is clearly recovering in recent weeks. We expect the recovery to continue as many risks that were being ignored by the market start to get priced-in to gold. Our base case scenario is for gold to reach close to US$1370/oz by year end.
Figure 1: Gold price forecast

Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, …