Inflows into ETPs driven by tactical reallocations
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Inflows into ETPs driven by tactical reallocations
- Investors injected US$26mn inflows into platinum and silver ETPs last week, withdrawing US$25mn from the precious metals basket and palladium ETPs at the same time.
- Net inflows into oil ETPs for the first time since September, driven by inflows into short.
- Inflows into thematic equities ETPs and EuroSTOXX ETPs as Brexit move to trade negotiations.
Last week widely expected outcomes led to small inflows into equities, energy and precious metals ETPs. The outcome of last week’s central bank meetings came almost as a non-event. The US Fed increased its funds target by 25bps to 1.5% on Wednesday evening with policymakers still expecting three rate hikes for 2018. The US dollar fell 0.7% on that day before recovering from its losses. In Europe, investors were hopeful that some clarity about the future tapering of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing program will be provided, but it was not. Instead, the ECB increased its growth forecast for the Eurozone for 2018, suggesting that inflation will continue to rise and that the central bank may have to act sooner than estimated. In UK, Bank of England Governor Carney kept its base rate unchanged despite UK inflation for November jumping to 3.1%. Central banks economic forecasts point toward strong growth and better labour market conditions for 2018 which should be supportive of asset prices across the board.
Investors injected US$26mn inflows into platinum and silver ETPs last week, withdrawing US$25mn from the basket and palladium ETPs at the same time. Investors added US$14.4mn inflows into platinum ETPs for the first time since October and US$12mn into silver ETPs for the fourth consecutive week. Last week saw the price of platinum falling by 1.1% to US$882/oz, widening the gap with palladium to US$146/oz., the largest since 2001. Silver prices, on the over hand, rose by 1% over the same period, ending the week at near US$16/oz., as industrial based metal prices continue to rally. Investors withdrew US$20.1mn from the basket ETPs and US$5mn from palladium ETPs at the same time, indicating a potential tactical reallocation into individual precious metals ETPs, which present better opportunities.
Net inflows into oil ETPs for the first time since September, driven by inflows into short. Last week saw net inflows of US$12.6mn into oil ETPs, the first inflows since September and the largest weekly inflows since July. This has been driven by US$23mn inflows into short oil ETPs despite little change in oil prices over the past week. Long oil ETPs, on the other hand, saw outflows of US$10.1mn, suggesting that the OPEC led rally is reaching its limit and that market participants are expecting prices to correct in the near term. Latest data show US oil production rose by another 73,000 barrels per day while larger-than-expected decline in US inventories continues.
Thematic equities continue to attract inflows as investors increase exposure to EuroSTOXX ETPs at the same time. Last week saw thematic equities recording net inflows of US$12.3mn, mainly into Robotic ETP (US$7.9mn). Investors also added US$12.3mn into EuroSTOXX ETPs as the Brexit negotiations move to the second phase after a turbulent month of back-and-forth discussions.
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