Low commodity prices overshadow Q2 earnings
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Low commodity prices overshadow Q2 earnings
Weak Chinese demand weighs on commodity prices.
European and US earnings garner momentum for equities.
US dollar appreciates as the Federal Reserve conditions the market for rate increases this year.
Commodities extended their declines this week and their impact was clearly resonated as the world’s leading energy and mining stocks across the globe posted losses in their Q2 earnings release. As these companies trim future revenue outlooks and cut capex and therefore reduce production, their impact should work their way back in the form of higher commodity prices. Greece’s stock markets are set to open today marking a slight hope of stabilization after weeks of riots, bank closures and emergency financing. Looking ahead the PMI Manufacturing data in the Eurozone, jobs data in the US and central bank meetings in Japan and UK will be the focus of next week’s economic calendar.
Weak Chinese demand weighs on commodity prices. Copper stockpiles are at their highest in 18 months as reported by the LME. Amidst the backdrop of copper price trading at a 6 year low, the world’s largest producers namely Freeport McMoRan, First Quantum and Antofagasta planned to cut back on production as they struggle to remain profitable. Power restrictions, delayed projects and cost cutting threaten to curtail supply, which we believe will be supportive for copper prices. Despite the unexpected decline in stockpiles of 4.2m barrels to 459.7m against the market forecast for 850,000 barrel increase, oil continued to tread in bear market territory as negative sentiment on China’s growth prospects weighed on prices. Corn fell by 7.4% after the International Grains Council raised its estimate for Chinese corn production by 5m metric tonnes to an all-time high 225m tonnes, allaying concerns of bad weather damaging corn fields in the U.S. and Europe. Tin rose 8.6% last week on the back of lower Indonesian exports (the world’s largest supplier).
European and US earnings garner momentum for equities. Despite a volatile start to the week led by the decline in Chinese benchmark indices, corporate earnings in the US and Europe helped restore confidence in global equity markets. European & US stocks posted an 8.3% and 4.5% earnings surprise among the 65% and 70% of companies that reported so far on the Eurostoxx 600 and S&P 500 Index respectively. Investors are increasingly realigning their portfolio towards Europe over US equities as better valuations, lower euro and improving economic growth favor the region. Meanwhile MSCI China A-Shares ended the week 9.8% lower.
US dollar appreciates as the Federal Reserve conditions the market for rate increases this year. In its latest statement the Fed said it needs to see “some further improvement in the labor market,” adding the modifier “some,” to its previous statement (indicating it is closer to the mark). This week’s US payrolls data will therefore carry a lot of weight in determining the timing of rate increases. Weak oil prices took its toll on the Canadian economy, with monthly GDP declining for a fifth consecutive month, supporting the Central bank of Canada’s July 15 decision to cut borrowing costs. The Canadian dollar depreciated 4.2% against the US dollar. Despite Swedish GDP beating expectations (3% vs 2.5% y-o-y expected), the Swedish Krona depreciated as the market expects interest rates to remain negative rates to maintain that pace of growth.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at email@example.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.
Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.