Hem » Börsen, ETF marknaden, ETF:er, Featured, Flöden och utveckling, Headline

Investor Sentiment Dulled as USD Gains Momentum

1 juni 2015 Inga kommentarer

Investor Sentiment Dulled as USD Gains MomentumInvestor Sentiment Dulled as USD Gains Momentum

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Investor Sentiment Dulled as USD Gains Momentum

Download the complete report (.pdf)


OPEC in focus, but production cuts unlikely.

European equities stutter despite Greek payment deferral.

USD rebounds as Euro crisis lingers ahead of the ECB meeting.

ETFSDrawn out negotiations over Greek finances and the potential for contagion of a Eurozone exit has dulled investor sentiment, in turn weighing on European equity. Volatility remains the focus for Chinese equities as concern over inflated valuations prompted a sharp sell-off, offsetting optimism of further stimulus from policymakers. Meanwhile, US policymakers have put rate hikes back on the agenda, and the stronger US Dollar has responded. Ahead of jobs numbers this week, we expect further USD gains. At the margin the rising USD is likely to continue to weigh on commodity markets, but a key focus will be the OPEC meeting.


OPEC in focus, but production cuts unlikely. The premature gains in oil prices that we had seen since March 2015 started to unravel last week with WTI and Brent falling 5% and 6% respectively. A firmer US dollar had weighed on all commodities. With rig counts stabilizing, it appears that US shale producers have little incentive to tighten supply at current prices. Added to that is a growing consensus that OPEC will not cut production at its June 5th meeting. Industrial metals have shrugged off concern over softening Chinese economy, and the stronger US dollar, as supply side issues are expected to lead to shortages in a variety of metal markets in 2015. Zinc and nickel in particular should remain well supported in coming months.


European equities stutter despite Greek payment deferral. The threat of a Greek default is hanging like Damocles sword above European equity markets. The June 5th payment deferral has given Greece some breathing space, but until there is clarity over whether Greece will stay in the Eurozone, equity benchmarks will struggle to progress. Another Greek bailout remains critical, but an agreement seems some way off after IMF chief Lagarde indicated that a Grexit remains a possibility. Meanwhile, Chinese equities lost ground as investors responded to increased margin requirements and the central bank draining excess liquidity from money markets. Chinese equity markets have been trading in a volatile manner and we expect that is unlikely to disappear in the near term, until investors see a more stable underlying economic environment. Softer economic numbers are likely to keep Chinese policymakers firmly in stimulus mode and both the Reserve Requirement Ratio and official rates could be lowered in coming months, alongside announcements surrounding additional infrastructure programs.


USD rebounds as Euro crisis lingers ahead of the ECB meeting. Recent indications from the US Fed have put the potential for rate hikes firmly on the agenda. While Q1 US growth disappointed, a host of temporary factors, like weather and port strikes had a significant impact. Going forward, this week’s US jobs data is likely to show continued improvement in the US labour market, a key indicator that the US Fed is looking at to give it justification for tighter policy. We expect that the USD will continue to gain momentum as rising rates are quickly factored in. With growth in other developed markets, like the Eurozone and Japan struggling to gain a foothold, the risk is for further currency declines as the central banks continue to flood markets with liquidity. The ECB will also give its view on the outlook at its meeting this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336

Important Information


This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Kommentarer är avstängda.