End of FED’s Asset Purchase Program and Upside GDP Surprise Drives Rally
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly A Turbulent Week for Investors – End of FED’s Asset Purchase Program and Upside GDP Surprise Drives Rally
Global equities cheer on upside US GDP surprise
Stimulus from central banks remains a critical driver for FX performance
Even though the end to the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme was well anticipated, asset prices reacted strongly. Less dovish comments and the further emphasis on data underscore the market’s reaction. Gold and silver, widely viewed as alternative currencies fell, while stock markets rallied on better-than-expected US Q3 GDP results. US non-farm pay-rolls will be closely watched this week in an era of heightened data dependency.
Nickel rebounds. Nickel bounced back 4.1% after excessive losses in recent months. With nickel trading significantly below its marginal cost, further price falls are untenable and we are likely seeing the beginning of a structural price rally that could be repeated across a number of industrial metals. Soybean meal and soybeans rose 4.9% and 3.0% respectively on reports of dry weather in Brazil, which could delay planting. Grain deliveries by railroad were down 2% according to the Association of American Railroads, accounting for some of tightness in the US despite record production. Corn rose 3.9% as a delay in US harvesting opens up the risk of crop damage if the corn remains in the ground too long. Gold fell 2.5% as the Fed ended its bond buying programme, dragging highly correlated silver and platinum down 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. Cocoa fell 5.4% with the “Ebola-premium” dissipating due to the absence of the virus in the key producer, Ivory Coast. Coffee also fell 3.0%, as prices moderate from the spike in September.
Global equities cheer on upside US GDP surprise. Led by the Russell 2000 small caps index, which rose 3.5%, most broad equity indices rose last week as investors upgraded their assessment of global growth. The IVSTOXX index fell 5.5% as recent equity market volatility got crushed. A key exception to the rally was the FTSE® MIB index, which fell by 1.0%, weighed down by structural challenges in Italy and Europe more broadly. The MSCI China A-Share index rose 3.0%, shaking off pessimism related to the delay in the opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect, as investors realise that it is a matter of ‘when’ and ‘not if’ the link opens. The ROBO-STOX® Global Robotics and Automation Index TR rose 1.9% as the robotics revolution, a megatrend to rival the industrial revolution and internet boom, gained traction.
Stimulus from central banks remains a critical driver for FX performance, as evidenced by the moves in the Euro, Yen and US Dollar in recent weeks. This week the Australian dollar and the Euro move back into focus. Both central banks will be angling for a lower currency to help boost activity that is otherwise somewhat lacking, with the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to be more forthright in its signalling. As such the AUD could struggle this week. The FOMC began the subtle shift toward tighter policy with less dovish language, and the market viewed this as a positive result nonetheless. The key sentence that we highlighted in the FOMC preview was removed, with the Fed clearly indicating that the focus will be on the data – which has been robust in recent months. Meanwhile, the Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels normal in the longer run. We remain bullish on the outlook for the USD as tighter monetary policy drives the currency higher against other G10 currencies..
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at firstname.lastname@example.org to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.
Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.